Since 1990, increased incarceration had a limited impact on reducing crime nationwide, concludes a new report from the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law. In What Caused the Crime Decline?, a team of economic and criminal justice researchers examine over 40 years of data, gathered from 50 states and the 50 largest cities.
The report takes a close look at Louisiana, which has the highest rate of incarceration in the world. Louisiana spent $713 million on state corrections in 2013. One in 75 adult Louisianans is behind bars, nearly twice the national average. As of 2013, Louisiana imprisons 850 people per 100,000, compared to 496 for the U.S. In 2013, the Times-Picayune reported that “Louisiana’s incarceration rate is nearly five times Iran’s, 13 times China’s and 20 times Germany’s.” This is partly due to financial rewards given by the state to local sheriffs to keep jails full with state prisoners, a perverse incentive that helps fuel incarceration. But even in this prison capital of the world, crime did not fall notably more than in other states.
The Center will host a briefing call today at 1 p.m. ET to discuss the report’s findings. Dial In information: 1–800–514–0831; Confirmation Number: 38955210
Nationwide and Louisiana-specific findings are summarized below:
- Crime: Crime across the United States has steadily declined over the last two decades. Crime in Louisiana dropped by 40 percent from its height in 1993 to 2013. And the national crime rate was cut in half.
- Incarceration: Increased incarceration has been declining in its effectiveness as a crime control tactic for more than 30 years. It had some effect, likely in the range of 0 to 10 percent, on reducing crime in the 1990s. Since 2000, however, increased incarceration had a negligible effect on crime. In Louisiana, the effectiveness of increased incarceration on crime has steadily declined since 1980, when the state had 8,889 prisoners. By 2000, the effectiveness of increased incarceration was essentially zero. At that time, there were 35,207 prisoners in the state. A number of states, including California, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, and Texas, have successfully reduced their prison populations while crime continues to fall.
- Other Factors: Increased numbers of police officers, some data-driven policing techniques, changes in income, decreased alcohol consumption, and an aging population played a role in the crime decline. In particular, the report finds CompStat is associated with a 5 to 15 percent decrease in crime. The report also includes new information on the effects of unemployment, the death penalty, and other theories on crime.
“Some have argued that despite the immense social and fiscal costs of America’s mass incarceration system, it has succeeded at reducing crime,” said report co-author Oliver Roeder. “But the data tells a different story: if reducing crime is the end goal of our criminal justice system, increased incarceration is a poor investment.”
“This report amplifies what many on the left and right have come to realize in recent years: mass incarceration isn’t working,” said Inimai Chettiar, director of the Brennan Center’s Justice Program. “A better use of resources would be improving economic opportunities, supporting 21st century policing practices, and expanding treatment and rehabilitation programs, all of which have proven records of reducing crime, without incarceration’s high costs.”
“This groundbreaking empirical analysis from the Brennan Center shows that, on examination, the easy answers do not explain incarceration’s effect on crime,” wrote Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics and University Professor at Columbia University, in the Foreword. “This report presents a rigorous and sophisticated empirical analysis performed on the most recent, comprehensive dataset to date.”
“While Louisiana has advanced several legislative reforms to reduce its prison population, it remains the prison capitol of the world—with the world’s highest incarceration rate,” said Lauren-Brooke Eisen, co-author of the report. “The potential positive impact of recent reforms has been diluted by simultaneous new laws likely to increase prison populations. This report’s findings support further reforms to reduce Louisiana’s prison population—and prove this can be achieved without added crime.”
Click here to read the full report, What Caused the Crime Decline?
Read about the crime decline in California, Illinois, Florida, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Virginia.
Click here to read more about the Brennan Center’s work to improve the criminal justice system.
For more information or to speak with an expert, contact Naren Daniel at (646) 292–8381 or naren.daniel@nyu.edu.